30 Jun 2015 - Anticipation

With all the signals that I am watching through different time frames, it is looking like prices are anticipating some news.  Prices are well aware of the 200 day MA. and the intra-day charts are still in OS territory with the Daily time frame at the gates of OS range as well.

The hesitation of price to touch or break through the 200 day means the news is not showing its hand as to whether it is good or bad news.  Good news would have us bounce on this moving average, and I do not have to mention what prices would do if we do have bad news.  This is classic "line in the sand" charting.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

29 Jun 2015 - 200 Day MA On Approach

The SPX has continued the bearish sentiment laid out last week.  With the 200 Day MA approaching, I would look for a clue to a support here.  But watch the time-frames to see if the support is short or longer term.  The way to see this is to look at divergences or reversals of each time-frame.  Of course if the larger time-frames make a abrupt U-Turn, then I would call that a good signal that a rally with magnitude should ensue.  If a reversal or divergence is only evident on an intra-day basis, a short-term rally should be the stance.

The above mentioned should be accompanied with a signal reset either reversing on OB back down towards OS range or position.  With the possible EW being incomplete, it is highly probable that price breaks the 200 Day support that everyone is expecting.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Note: We cannot eliminate the possibility of this move lower as a C-wave move.  So I am prepared for an upside surprise if it comes.

Update on Bull / Bear Sentiment:
The signal is still good for downside potential which currently sits below the mid-line and open position.

26 Jun 2015 - Below 20 Day

The SPX should be closing below its 20day moving average.  This adds to the bearish case even if we expect a rally.  A corrective move up is expected, but with the weekly closing on a neg. bias chances are that there are more downside moves in store.

The bulls need an impulsive move up and finally break that high made in May, but this type of move would surely make a negative divergence as price accelerates leaving the signal behind.  Eventual bearish sentiment would prevail.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

Support - 2098 SPX

25 Jun 2015 - Double Break .. Not So Good

The SPX is not looking good right now with a break of a wedge yesterday and a break of the moving averages on the 60min chart today.  The HH I was looking for is in danger of failing as we push further downward.  As expected from yesterdays post, we have now made an ST turn to the downside which adds more to the bearish conviction.  With a possible 5 waves decline we should see a rally and should look for a 3 wave move if it is a start of a prolonged move lower. 

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
ST: DOWN

24 Jun 2015 - Break or Support?

The SPX has now broken the bottom wedge line support that I have drawn yesterday.  We should look for a turn on our ST tomorrow to the downside, but anything can happen so those who are short should look at the intra-day chart for an exit of OS condition to take profit.  I was looking for another push to new highs but seeing as prices have now closed below the 60min 75ma and 200ma.  I would view this as bearish.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

23 Jun 2015 - Will Tomorrow Be The Day?

On an intra-day basis, a possible 5th wave might still be missing that could push prices to break the previous highs.  We are also experiencing another wedging pattern that is showing up on our charts.  A reversal needs to happen this week sometime or our Bearish Warning signal would be in danger of pushing back up to bullish.  This is why on the chart I posted in regards to the Bullish/Bearish trigger, saying that we should be bearishly cautious with all the volatility taking place every time a price gets smashed down without continuation.  One day we will not see a stall in the breakdown of price and the floor might not be there.  It could already be here...

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

22 Jun 2015 - SPX Trying For ATH Club

The SPX has been on a tear lately, but has not cracked higher for another ATH.  While a few have made their HH last week.  Either SPX is playing catch up or setting up for a classic wave 2 which usually tests and retraces close to its wave-1(Green wave-5) origin (Assuming it is the right count).  Based only my views though, the move from late May to June 9th is a corrective affair with  a 3 wave looking pattern.  The possibility of price not reaching higher highs is also possible, and this would be called a failed 5th.  With this scenario, we still need to see a 5 wave pattern to turn up.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

There is a Neg. Divergence occurring in the 60min. chart so this might clue us into a possible trend change.  I would like the signal to hit below the mid-line to initiate a short with a hold going into any OS condition.