Reset Risk Reward Signals

Many of you who read my blog on a consistent basis know about the "Reset" scenario that I speak about.  Starting today, I will indicate on the 60 minute chart if there is a high chance a "RESET" is occurring and in which direction the probabilities of price movement will be.  This signal is not bullet proof, but it raises the odds heavily in its favour.  These "RESETS" are also fallible only during volatility as is many, including our own indicators we use so there is nothing new here.

These "RESET SIGNAL"  will help those looking for a better entry point when one is not able to get in at the right time.  This I am sure has happened to everyone and who are afraid of chasing only to see prices ramp up or free fall leaving many of us sitting on the sidelines or riding the losses down with it.  Hopefully this will help clarify the analysis on a daily basis.  The EW analysis will be scaled down in hopes of less clutter and confusion which does not reduce the risk anyhow.  These signals are inline with my time-frame analysis theory and does not divert from my overall work.  What I am trying to accomplish here is a system that provides fast,easy, and no bullshit analysis, where if someone cannot make a solid decision, all they have to do is look at where the bias is likely to occur.

This is not a solicitation to trade, but a tool to guide your own trading strategy or system.

You will notice the green and red arrows on the chart below that triggered during price action signalling either a bottom or top.  These signals do not often occur at ultimate bottoms, as this requires multiple studies, but I am hoping that if a trend has started (ST), then we would look for opportunity or biases based on that ST trend.

Note: The SPX monthly bar is in good reversal form.  This suggest that if the bar holds true then we should get a down turn for at least a month and possibly longer if price persist in the downward fashion.  The weekly is not bearish at all and this must be in sync with the monthly chart to see any strong moves.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R:  Apr 28th Down

New Blog Signal Added

BIG update will happen from today forward to give readers an even better signal. More detail at EOD analysis..

Note: SPX has entered HIGH RISK for intra-day acceleration to DOWNSIDE.  Caution must be taken.

28 Apr 2016 - Basing.. A Success

The basing pattern I mentioned yesterday and the possible scenario played out today.  Not only did price push to make a lower low, but it also supported near the 200 moving average of the 60 minute chart I indicated yesterday.  We are still trending downwards so we will see if there are any follow through lower past today's bottom support.  Perhaps we will see the 200 day MA reached eventually, but keep in mind that our long-term time frames are not looking bearish as of yet, so I would only call this push lower as a temporary down turn until we can confirm through an OS signal or bearish sentiment.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Note The ES is showing a positive divergence in its intra-day chart, therefore we can expect a rally of sorts followed by a push lower based on our ST signal.

27 Apr 2016 - Basing

The word of the day is "Basing".  The ES from last Wednesday's high has been doing just that and with the SPX also sporting a 3 wave pattern up from this Mondays lows.  The scenario here is for prices to surpass Mondays low, and perhaps tag the 200 MA on the 60 min. chart at 2065 SPX range. This would be in SYNC with our ST sentiments as well.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

25 Apr 2016 - Non Eventful Down Day

ST still down trending regardless of the rally back to almost unchanged.  The 200 moving average in the 60 min. chart is now inline with the blue dotted trend line and should serve as support if price is seen going down.  The ES today seemed to show a nice break to the downside but instead closed with the signals back up above the 200 moving average of the hourly chart.  It seems that the ES is very comfortable just wallowing around the 200 hourly moving average.  As seen in previous charts, it has been the status quo for quite some time.

There needs to be a conviction of bearish bias once price breaks the 200 line or else it will just be the usual intra-day activity of buy the dips.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

22 Apr 2016 - Beginning Of The End?

Is this the start of the down phase?  ST did turn down today and came out of OB.  This should be some good signs for bears to close out the week regardless of the bounce at the end of the day.  Prices remained supported by the 75 MA on the 60 min. chart.  Any push lower should find support on the 200 day MA as a test.  The intra-charts are not yet bearish, but as long as the ST is down, risk is favouring the down side.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

21 Apr 2016 - Party Like It's 1999

Today is a reminder of how fast time is going by.  When celebrities from your memorable youth has passed it is hard to ignore the sign that life is telling us to make something of ourselves or that we live life happily as possible.  Once we are 6 ft. under, only the immediate family will remember us.  The world however doesn't skip a beat.

This is also true about the markets.  We can lose thousands even millions, but the market doesn't care and keeps on going about their ways.  It's a hard reality, but sometimes we just have to follow the herd that doesn't trend towards a cliff.

Prince made the song called "1999" and party the markets did.  Now with his passing, maybe it's another signal that this cycle is ending or has ended as well.  Food for thought.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: NA