“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC

PAYPAL

Tuesday 25 September 2012

Warning!!!

I am writing today to give a warning of whats to come in the next few days to weeks to months in the stock market.

There is an overwhelming sign that the market has topped for the time being and Im putting it mildly.  Why you ask? and havent you made these predictions in the past? Whats so different now?

Today is September 25th 2012 10:22pm, and I have been reviewing the charts today and mainly the stoch. as I usually do everyday.  Many EW'rs have this trend down as corrective and it looks corrective even I had that same thought.  One thing that did come out at me was the higher time frames namely the Weekly, Monthly.  The set up for this is so great that even if the market moved up tomorrow as Im predicting we might not see a higher high and it would be more of a risk to hold on to the long positions.  Many are as we speak, holding onto their long positions thinking this is a correction.

Let me explain.  The price on a monthly chart on the general indexes has hit the upper BB, and if we are in our current position now, we would be looking at a reversal candle for that monthly bar that will print by the end of this fridays market (EOM).  Not only that,  the stoch. has already turned down which is much more bearish if one was to look at the weekly.  So the only thing that will negate all this would be for new highs this week and for the daily to turn up tomorrow. My guess is it will due to the 60min at oversold levels and the daily in neutral.  What does this say?  The analysis calls for a "watchout" moment when the point of 60min stoch hits the overbought and daily stays negative.

The MACD has also turned down on the Daily charts of the SPX. As we know its not easy task to turn MACDs around on a dime and it will take time like a long bus.

As you all know each time frame will move accordingly, and if the monthly has finally turned it can move for months.  Therefore it is not something I would want to stand infront of.  The financials were weak, and GE one of my bellweather is also week on all time-frames.  The SPX ratio indicators are also weak.

This would be the time to stand back and get the gun powder ready if not have some position in to make a bit of money if it does move quickly.  I still would not put all of it in until I am dead sure that my 60min is working in the dailys favour. GLTA

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