Tuesday 5 February 2013
5 Feb 2013
Looks like another good call for a rally. Didn't expect it to make a higher high so soon though. Todays form / pattern looks to be a 3 wave move with a move from yesterdays high. This suggests either more move up coming or we will turn down for a C wave move to finish a EW running FLAT for a 4th wave of some sort then move higher from there. But as its stands we are diverging on a daily time frame and have a higher chance of a high this week before we move down for a few weeks to months.
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mp, aside from the divergences, what's your justification for going lower? especially for so long? my analysis tells me otherwise. In fact, I see us going ALOT higher. just to show you a bit of whats in my deck, check out the 1987 chart and the pattern its made over the last two months. Turning points, pattern, all follow the same route so there's a chance it may follow a similar direction much like how the previous two years followed the 45 year cycle.
ReplyDeleteThere have been a lot of cycles being thrown around out there, but the most consistent time targets are from GANN, and Cowan analysis. Not only do we have the mark of the beast approaching this year, we also have the last 3 years of this bear market cycle end approaching. On a EW theory analysis we are working on a super cycle 4th wave which will lead us to a final push to a 5th wave that will not give us the chance to live long enough to see the super cycle top that will collapse the world economy.
ReplyDeleteI have been calling for a down trend for a long time but I also note that readers of my blog understand that I analyse the markets day to day with the opinion that it will eventually fall. So if the market tells me its on an uptrend in a short or medium term then I will indicate that. I have to look in front of me as well as ahead of me. But I can't guarantee how it will unfold so I will just react to markets. Because I know that when the down trend happens, all those people who say they will see it coming and be able to get out will be disappointed. Im on my guard, but I also play the upside but only a small position.
The 45 yr cycle is a good cycle to follow but there are also other cycles that converge.. The more cycles that converge in one area the better the possibility of that turn happening. My analysis based on Stoch. allows me to see market behaviour in a real time basis which allows me to see possible moves for next day or weeks. As far as I am concerned that is good enough for me... Hope this helps.
BTW. I used to have updated trends for the SPX, DOW, GOLD, and Silver with dates attached to them and when they were last bullish and bearish. Take a look at the dates and you will see that many of those dates caught the large trend. I stopped posting them because some have gotten used to the idea that I can give them the answer of when a trend has changed and they trade based on that and never use their own analysis. This is a free blog and my hope is that my analysis could help others with their own analysis instead of being the go to guy for the trade.
ReplyDeleteI'm also looking at the bigger picture, which is what I don't make now or in 2 weeks time or even 2 months time will be made in 1 or 2 trades in 5 or even 6 months from now.
I used to day trade, and although it can be done, success in day trading can be stressful. Like GANN said.. "A smart man changes his mind all the time.. a fool never." "The more you trade the more you increase the probability for mistakes." Maybe I should add this to my Tattoos... Hmm.. lol.
I agree with your insight mp. I'm a big time follower of Gann and Cowan and beyond so I'm aware of everything you said and have been discussing with platy and such. but your analysis and opinions are misleading. saying that the market will eventually come down is saying you'llbe right, someday. can be tomorrow, can be next year? the stochs are not leading inidicators with plenty of fake outs too. I'm just curious to see where you actually have an edge.
ReplyDeleteWe all have our own techniques. You will have to find your own which Im sure you do and that's great. Why would I work hard and show everyone my secrets. I don't make any money from this blog and I don't demand money, but I'm able enough to share some techniques and clues on how to trade using the Stoch. This blog is just that, a blog. I can't tell you what goes on in my head when I buy or sell or even forecast. There is also a lot of things I see in a 60min Stoch. that you don't. Its not for everyone and if there is an indicator that you use that makes you more money then I congratulate you because we are not envious people, because if we are we would not share our thoughts at all...
ReplyDeleteMy analysis and opinions is just as misleading as your analysis for being long. I looked at your 1987 patterns and nothing that I see matches to current patterns. But again I respect your opinions and beliefs yet I won't see what you see and I won't pick your brains to find the answer. I'm comfortable with my analysis and confident enough to find the answer on my own, that's all that matters, and I encourage everyone to think that way and think for themselves or else your success will be very limited and short lived. GL.
I'm only stating an opinion and trying to start a dicussion mp, take it easy. Platys blog does the same in where they share ideas. for example, the 87 chart I told you to view, look at dec 86 and Jan 87. looks like the last 2 months no? I jhave a projection of a ppeak in late march and Aug which is also shown on the helio Bradley index and is seen on the 87 chart, which is what you guys talk about with jays chart in platys blog too.
ReplyDeletePlus 87 has a nasty crash in line with your beast cycle. stop taking offense to n opinion that contrasts yours cuz you may learn something.
ReplyDeleteYou suggest your analysis says otherwise from my belief of a down trend coming in the near future and you think we are going higher. I never said "A MAJOR TOP IS IN". Im not opposed to learning something new. I do it everyday, but it seems your the one taking offense to my comments. If you feel my analysis is unhelpful then please feel free to pay no mind to it. Why don't you explain in more detail why you think there is a relationship with 1987 and current market patterns and what's coming next and what is your time frame. Maybe we can better understand your opinion.
ReplyDeleteI did not see your comments previous to your last one. So your analysis leads you to a late march top and a double top in Aug. I also believe that a top will be in soon. I'm very aware of Bradley Cowans dates and I'm in favour of it and so I don't know why my opinion about it differs from yours other than that I believe in a May top. But dates can be off +-. Platy call for tops and bottoms and so does Jay. Sometimes it doesn't pan out and its the same with me. To be honest Im not an expert in Astological and planetary alignments and I don't claim to be and expert as Platy knows full-well. So Contrast? Offense? No I don't take offense on constructive criticism.
ReplyDeletelate march early April to be more precise. but I think the Aug high will be an all time high rather than a double top. the markethas to get super euphoric before a mother blood bath initiates. gotta get every sucker in the market and an all time high is needed for that to happen. plus the 29 and 87 both topped in Aug followed by lovely blood bath. Bradley index says Aug too. I can be wrong but rather trust repeating patterns than anything else.
ReplyDeleteYes seems with all the money coming into the stock market, a lot of people are getting suckered. Margins are at all time highs, Vix all time low. Divergence progressing for a long time. Spells disaster.
ReplyDeleteyup. thats the inevitable future months from now. but not yet. but when it comes, its gonna be exciting for traders for sure. trembling just thinking about it!
ReplyDelete