“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC

PAYPAL

Saturday 14 March 2015

A Tuff Nut To Crack...

When looking at charts certain things stick out like a sore thumb, and its because it has been consistently providing a line in the sand so to speak.  So if you would take your attention to the charts below, you will notice that on a weekly scale the price seems to have trouble cracking and staying below the 20 week moving average.  At most it would only stay below for a max. of 3 weeks since the early 2012 correction.  Since then we've only seen two occasions where it stayed below the 20 for more than 2 weeks. Nov 2012 and the Oct 2014 correction.  Out of the 12 that poked below the 20 week MA.  Only 5 have seen a posting below the 20 for 2 weeks. 7 of those only made a cross down on a weekly scale and managed to close above it before the week ended and printed.

So to me, this suggest that the break in the 20 week MA this past week should be something to watch to see if next week see us finally following through to the downside..  If it does, the next step is to use the 20 week MA as a resistance for Bulls and shorting opportunity for Bears.

 
BONUS:
 
This chart below is what I use to indicate a possible start to a recession or a boom...  There are some volatility but does not occur all the time, and can carry the momentum in most cases in the past.
The eventuality of a committed turn is a certainty...  and volatility usually indicates a struggle between bulls and bears.


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