“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC

PAYPAL

Monday 31 August 2015

31 Aug 2015 - Not Another Manic Monday..

Big difference between last Monday and this Monday.  Everything seems to be getting back to normal.  Indicators have also closed the gap between the volatile price moves.  So is this over?  Nothing is for certain, but on an intra-day level things are still sitting on a thin line between bearish and bullish.  The bias though at the moment is a near term bearish trend as seen with the overnight sloshing of price sideways.  The reason why I am bearish is that the intra-day charts along with the monthly chart has prices below its 20 moving averages.  This has always been the key to a long standing support or resistance.  Therefore, we shall see the outcome tomorrow.  Look for an acceleration down if indicators become OS from its down trending position right now.  Any OS status for an extended period of time could also manipulate the ST trend into turning down.  This would be another characteristic of OS/OB condition to look out for.

Starting today, the MT will be removed and replaced by the Market sentiment to better clarify the longer term trend.  This should also alleviate the confusion between the two sentiment indicator.

SEN: BEARISH
ST: UP
PA: NA

With a signal above not in SYNC, it is apparent that a trade could not be made, hence the sideways and clueless nature of the signals.  As I write this, the ES futures chart has entered OS in the hourly.  This should be watched overnight to see if there is a prolonging of stay at this level (UPDATE: Price is already 36 pts. lower as of 11PM EST).  Again, the rules above applies for all charts no matter what time frame, and will reflect and affect each other.

The monthly chart has printed and prices being under the 20wk MA is a bearish sign.  This MA has held since 2011.  Be aware of this "fact"


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