“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC

PAYPAL

Thursday 3 December 2015

3 Dec 2015 - Never AssUme

Back in Sept. we saw exactly what we are seeing now.  Although we cannot rule out a higher high, we cannot assume that we will make one either.  The best way is to follow your indicator.

The SPX is making a case for more movement lower as of today.  Things can change from day to day so you need to be always on your toes for when that shift happens.  Stick to as little indicator you should use and to one time-frame as to not get confused.  I always think of it as cutting wood.  There are many ways to do it, and they can be fast or slow.  It's all on your preference.  But the main point of this example though, is that you cannot use both at the same time unless you are aware or conditioned to do it accurately and precisely.

The intra-day chart is now showing that prices have broken the wedge support as well as the 200 day MA.  This was the situation we were waiting for to happen, and clearly it broke to the downside.  The negative divergence on the 60 min. was successful in alerting us to a possible downturn.  However, the divergence on the daily chart has not materialized and might not materialize as seen below on the daily chart.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN


Note: For those still looking for a higher high in the SPX or market, the triangle option below that is newly drawn could potentially happen but we would need the signals to confirm these moves.  If we stay oversold tomorrow we could see this nullified.


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