Finally the month end. It definitely did not disappoint when it comes to telling clues. The reversal candle is evident, and while this is a longer term outlook, we can still anticipate that a month to month reversal could be in play. What do we do now? Confirm and trade this monthly reversal by looking at lower charts for indicators that are weak (possibly occurring in the daily as signals fail to push above the 50 level). Of course markets can still move higher into next month but must close below the previous month close to be bearish. The next step for the monthly chart is to show a cross down on the signal causing a down trend. The signal is still OB hence the possibility of a surprise upside. This is why I recommend to watch markets on a daily level.
There are crash talks pointing for Sept. for a while now and we are here. While it may not happen, this is the time to watch for clues in our signal actions. An ST down is an opportunity not a definite so a turn up on ST is always a good time to re-establish a short position at higher levels and never keep a short on hopes while trend is uptrending.
SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA
R: NA (Reset will remain on a downward bias in favour of ST).
Note: the 75 monthly average is sitting at around 1650 where Fib. levels also show support. Not to mention the proximity of the 2007, and 2000 top.
The lower upper trendline is still holding support and the one to watch...
On an intra-chart basis the down trending support is also barely holding on, and if both trend lines mentioned above breaks then expect a run.
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