“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC

PAYPAL

Friday 18 September 2015

18 Sept 2015 - Damn If You Do.. Damn If You Don't..

I might have used this title before, but worth the title for this week, as nothing the FED can say can twist the market into a good mood.  Holding rate could have been good news, yet it was bad news...  Now everyone is jumping on the "bad news is bad news" bandwagon.

I was off by 3 points in the SPX low that I estimated would hit 1950.  But what I was looking for was a 5 sub-wave move and I got it.  With OS conditions at higher time frames we are at risk of an acceleration down and being in the same trend as our sentiments as well as an ST that also turned down today, the risk and probability is even greater for an occurrence.  However, the EW suggest that since the 5 wave sub-wave is complete, we should see a corrective move up...  I will treat it as such and just wait it out as nothing can be gained by playing a short-term counter trend play.

There are numerous things to note with current situation.  First off, we not only had a weekly reversal candle, we also had that candle hit resistance at its weekly 75 MA.  Also mentioned above is the ST turning down which could last for a few days or weeks.  With all things in SYNC, this becomes a low risk trade to the downside that should last days to weeks.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN



Note:  Please be mindful that due to the severity of the push down in late Aug., there is a possibility that a complete count could already been had but the nature of the push lower would not show up in the chart to confirm a complete EW.  This is always a possibility when an impulsive manner happens.  Therefore there is many who are not considering this rally into Mid-Sept. as a Wave 2 corrective pattern and could be already producing a wave 3 or (C-wave move lower for those corrective camp).

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