“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC


Friday, 23 August 2013

23 Aug 2013

The markets were resilient today and they managed to break key barriers on the 60min chart.  ES have been trying to break the 200 60min ma all day and has broken above in the last hour. Todays intra-day sell signal was a false signal and prices still need to break the 75ma of the SPX 60min chart.  I believe we are still corrective but our short-term trend has signalled an up move therefore a trade to the downside or any short entry should be limited until we can confirm both trends travelling in the same direction.  Even though our signal today made a false trigger, it is ultimately my fault for not letting the signal print and prices continued higher, but no matter we will see again when the 60min comes out of overbought on Monday or not.  An EW potential count of 1-2 1-2 could be in the works at the moment, so be careful as our Main-Trend is still DOWN.

Main-Trend: DOWN
Short-Term: UP

I mentioned yesterday on Planetforecaster that a possible EW pattern could have us bottom as early as today.  I will give it till Monday, but if we continue our trend higher next week then I was a day late and we are in the process of that corrective move possibly for a week and a half where a topping pattern should arrive in the first week of September and a continued move downwards after that.  I would say keep patient and let the patterns fall where they may and it will eventually clear itself.  At the moment our indicators are not in sync and this is usually the time to stay on the sideline to let things go back to normal again.  Do not take the chart at the bottom as a fact.  I am just looking at possible pattern developments and we should always follow our trends.

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