“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC


Tuesday, 6 August 2013

6 Aug 2013

The patterns are forming and todays drop seems to be the work of a C wave forming the last patterns of a 4th wave with one more wave to the upside.  The run up from the lows of the 26th looked very corrective due to its overlapping conditions.  So it is fitting to label this a B wave.  This pattern would result in a expanded flat, and would continue on to new highs.  Since we are expecting a reaction in mid August (End of Next Week),  I could see us moving up from tomorrow onwards to finish off the top and drop us down for a few weeks to a few months.  I expect the SPX to make a low tomorrow which would finish of a 5wave decline but not for a new impulsive 1st wave but for a C wave for 4th.  The low that needs to be broken is the low made on the 24th of June. That would negate any new highs to be made, but of course by that time it could already be safely assumed.

Main-Trend: Down (unconfirmed)
Short-Term: Down

Todays trend characteristics is a bit weird in that both main and short-term trends have trended together.  Not to say it cant happen, but based on the wave counts which we feel is lacking one more upside we could possibly have a fake-out by the bulls.  Either way, we must respect the indicators call and not jump to conclusions and trade on hope.  In the end though I would always trust my indicators over my wave counting.

I have been hearing a lot of people saying that "They don't see a crash coming", so I would like to remind people again if they also hear it from peers or other analysis that rarely does anyone see it.  So don't worry if you don't see it, it will come out when its ready.

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