“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC


Friday, 16 January 2015

16 Jan 2015 - Week End

There was quite a few notables today even if the market didn't do much till the end of the day.  I expected a draw down this morning which it did, but it was so minute you need to see it in the smaller time frame (See 11am update).  The rally up was also suggested but considered to be corrective, and by the end of the market session prices were nearing the 60min 75ma. 

So it would not be out of the ordinary for prices to push up next week to touch the 75ma on the 60min chart which sits at 2026.16 at the moment.  Any higher and we would need to consider the counts but otherwise still safe until the last high is taken out on Jan 13.

Because the indicator is still setting up as down trending, the counts will be based on the trend.  Below are also some charts taken throughout the day on the ES and SPX.


15Min Count and Vibration Channels

60Min ES chart showing a channel .. This channel was broken just before close.

Minimum Lower Low has been met but still possible of a correction lingering.  Leaning towards a 60min Bearish scenario still until the indicator turns bullish.  Traders need to use specific time frame to cater their trades higher time frames will lag more but exit is key.

The ES is possibly forming a corrective sequence and might be due for a bounce after we make a lower low. This is only based on the analysis of a 3 wave pattern highlighted below.  Of course we cannot be so accurate about this on a 15min chart, but going into the 1min chart also shows us a 3 wave corrective pattern.  I suspect that the bounce could happen at end of day or next week to start of the new week. 

The bounce though still needs to be determined if its just part of a bigger corrective pattern of a bear trend.

Stay tuned...

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